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Presidential Elections and The Stock Market: Is There Any Correlation?- 10.20 Thumbnail

Presidential Elections and The Stock Market: Is There Any Correlation?- 10.20

Michael D'Angelo- October 2020 

2020 has been anything but ordinary, and you have an election year truly like no other.

Of course, past performance is no guarantee or indicator of future performance. But as an investor, it may interest you to see how the stock market has performed historically during and after presidential elections years. Below we’ve charted out the S&P 500 returns since the 2000 election:

Election Year

Presidential Candidates 

Performance During Election Year 

Performance For Following Year 


Bush vs. Gore




Bush vs. Kerry




Obama vs. McCain




Obama vs. Romney




Trump vs. Clinton




Trump vs. Biden



*Recessionary Periods


Additionally, below shows the S&P 500’s percentage of return during a president’s full 8 year term dating back to 1981:



S&P 500 Return

Donald J. Trump (R)



Barack H. Obama (D)



George W. Bush (R)



Bill J. Clinton (D)



George H.W. Bush (R)



Ronald W. Reagan (R)



*Recessionary Periods

Historically speaking, there have been a number of outside factors that determine the stock market’s performance - more so than simply which party is in power. These other factors could include whether or not we’re in a bull or bear market, the business cycle, civil unrest (at home and overseas), trade wars, tax policy changes and more.

If the upcoming election has you worried about the future of your portfolio, take some time now to speak with us. We will be able to provide important insight into whether or not your asset allocation should be readjusted and review any plans you may have already put in place.